2010-04-11

The Ghost Of History Past And Present

So. Does history set patterns for contemporary times and it's up to us to detect them? History is riddled with lessons. Some are, well, riddles and others are as clear as crystal. The trick is to figure our which applies to our circumstances. Just because says or shows us something doesn't necessarily mean it condemns us to it. Otherwise, if we only consult history we lose our faith and ability to want to change things.

"History has shown..." Yes. It has shown. Past tense. Too many factors play into humanity for us to take history at face value. We should instead not so much to read it in conclusive manners but interpret it with fluid senses. History has shown us many things. Some of it can't be changed - for example, laws of nature, economics, humanity etc. Some of it can be moulded to fit our times.

You know when they say about a mutual fund past returns may not be repeated? We see the track record of a mutual fund. Indeed, despite that record it doesn't promise the same ones in the future. The past can only give us an idea. For instance, if one mutual consistently gives us a 9% return, then with some reasonable financial computations, we can assume over time we'll be in that neighborhood. If another mutual fund provides an average of, say, 2% (which would make it a really shitty fund) again we have an idea of what it can do. Then we match and decide which to go with.

No different with history. We can spot the patterns. The art is to determine which applies and how.

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