Literature On Lockdowns

On September 12 I compiled several mask studies and posted them. I've since moved it to this site where I will update relevant information.

Now I've added lockdowns.

There's no question lockdowns have been a spectacular failure if you consider trade-offs including delaying the inevitable and thus prolonging enormous social, psychological and economic pain. 

That there are countries that still see them as viable is a mystery that must be investigated. 

The idea of lockdowns and 'bubbles' and whatever arbitrary tactics chosen have never been shown to be scientifically sound so why are experts recommending them?

Why is media blindly accepting these pernicious measures? Worse, pointing this fact out runs the risk of getting banned on social media.

Social media = Modern Spanish Inquisition.

MacDonald-Laurier Institute: 

"…Public health leaders are medical experts and are necessary advisors in for- mulating a response to the pandemic. However, their expertise is not suffi- cient to make policy decisions. There are trade-offs to any decision made, and preventing COVID-19 cases, deaths, and overwhelmed hospital capacity are not the only factors to consider. Unfortunately, the response perspective of controlling a single disease has had devastating, often unequally distributed, collateral effects.”

“…In high-income countries other collateral damage from lockdowns is occur- ring. Fear of attending hospitals resulted in 50 percent declines in visits for heart attacks and strokes, meaning missed opportunity for time-critical treat- ments. ‘Non-urgent’ surgery and cancer diagnosis/treatment were delayed, with backlogs that will take years of catch-up and untold effects on prognoses. Of excess mortality during the pandemic, 20-50 percent has not been due to COVID-19 (see Kontis et al. 2020; Docherty et all 2020; and Postill et al 2020); much of that excess is likely attributable to these collateral effects. An unexplained increase in deaths of people with dementia in the US and UK also likely arose from deterioration due to loneliness. Over time, suicide, de- pression, alcohol use disorder, childhood trauma due to domestic violence, changes in marital status, and social isolation are projected to cause millions of years of life lost in Canada alone.”

“…Given the age distribution of deaths from COVID-19, each death has cost the loss of about 5 QALY; thus, lockdowns might save up to 25.12 million QALY (see Table 1).”

“….A minimum cost calculation of the recession’s effect on reducing government spending on the determinants of population wellbe- ing and lifespan is this: (at least US$50 trillion GDP loss globally) X (around 40 percent of GDP from government expenditures) ÷ (less than US$80,000/QALY) is equal to or greater than 250 million QALY lost in the years to come. Already the cost-benefit balance comes out about 10 times against lockdowns (see Table 1).

A similar rough calculation for Canada puts the cost-benefit balance at about 17 times against lockdowns.”

The Lancet:

"...It has become clear that a hard lockdown does not protect old and frail people living in care homes—a population the lockdown was designed to protect.

3 Neither does it decrease mortality from COVID-19, which is evident when comparing the UK's experience with that of other European countries."

“…There is very little we can do to prevent this spread: a lockdown might delay severe cases for a while, but once restrictions are eased, cases will reappear. I expect that when we count the number of deaths from COVID-19 in each country in 1 year from now, the figures will be similar, regardless of measures taken.”

"...Measures to flatten the curve might have an effect, but a lockdown only pushes the severe cases into the future —it will not prevent them. Admittedly, countries have managed to slow down spread so as not to overburden health-care systems, and, yes, effective drugs that save lives might soon be developed, but this pandemic is swift, and those drugs have to be developed, tested, and marketed quickly. Much hope is put in vaccines, but they will take time, and with the unclear protective immunological response to infection, it is not certain that vaccines will be very effective."

Wiley:

“…Evidence is lacking for the most aggressive measures. A sys- tematic review on measures to prevent the spread of respiratory viruses found insufficient evidence for entry port screening and social distancing in reducing epidemic spreading.10 Plain hy- gienic measures have the strongest evidence.10,11 Frequent hand washing and staying at home and avoiding contacts when sick are probably very useful. Their routine endorsement may save many lives. Most lives saved may actually be due to reduced transmission of influenza rather than coronavirus.”

“…If COVID-19 is not as grave as it is depicted, high evi- dence standards are equally relevant. Exaggeration and over- reaction may seriously damage the reputation of science, public health, media and policymakers. It may foster dis- belief that will jeopardize the prospects of an appropriately strong response if and when a more major pandemic strikes in the future.”

Now into 2021....damage is done.

Price of Panic:

Excellent collection of studies and essays on lockdowns.

SSRN:

Coronaphobia a mental disorder.

"Communication on the COVID-19 pandemic has been distorting the emerging scientific evidence and has led to the unprecedented closure of societies (‘lockdown’). The ‘collateral damage’ caused by Corona control measures is affecting the lives and livelihoods of billions of people world-wide, especially the vulnerable, and most probably costing the lives of hundreds of thousands. This has promoted a new mental disorder, ‘coronaphobia’, an epidemic of fear, spreading faster than the virus itself, and permitting a surprising degree of acceptance even of very harsh control measures. It is argued that societies’ reaction to epidemics should adapt to the emerging evidence, and that they should more strictly adhere to well-established public health principles."

UN:

“The 15-year global effort to improve the lives of people everywhere through the achievement of the 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by 2030 was already off track by the end of 2019. And now, in only a short period of time, the COVID-19 pandemic has unleashed an unprecedented crisis, causing further disruption to SDG progress, with the world’s poorest and most vulnerable affected the most, according to a new report released today by the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs.”

Collection of posts and articles on lockdowns.

World Food Programme: Millions pushed into starvation.

Pensfod: Flattening the curve is over rated.

Spectator: Considering lockdowns.

Forbes: Physicians: Lockdowns are a mass casualty incident. 

Irish Times: Lockdowns 'too harsh' German minister.

Interview with two Ontario doctors.

Daily Wire: Deadly toll on young people.

AEIR: We need a principles anti-lockdown movement. 

NY Post: Lockdowns huge mistake. 

ABC News: Worst to come due to measures according to UN.

Covid Planning Tools: Excess death impacting the young.

Express UK:  'Lockdowns monumental mistake on a global scale'.

Dr. Strauss on lockdowns.