Prevention Myth And Know-Nothingness

Prevention.

We hear a lot about that now.

The key to avoiding a health problem is prevention.

Magic.

Say it. Logically, it makes perfect sense. Prevention! Let's go to the prevention hospital!

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Of course, in practice, for a person attempting to take such wise advice to heart they discover one major problem: The public health system is not equipped to help you prevent anything.

It can barely properly service people as it is for basic health issues, you want it to prevent on top of that?

Good luck with that. One of the major problems, aside from the insanity of heavy government regulation, is that the way public health works in Canada is that you need a family doctor (GP) as your point guard. If he signs off on something you're thrown into the system and you wait. If you aren't lucky enough to have a GP (and that would be the majority of Canadians) you're, well, screwed. You ain't preventing anything.

Go ahead. Try.

My family has a history of heart ailments and when my cousin almost lost his life (he was 28) due to a weak heart, the cardio hospital ordered the entire family be checked. I came out alright. A few years later, with all the heavy advertising about checking your heart before its too late, I figured since I already have a file and given the special nature of the family I was a phone call away.

I know. Splendidly naive. Basically, it went something like this, "Hi, I'm The Commentator. I once did an EKG with you guys and my cousin mentioned you guys still..." "Who gave you our number? Who are you? Can't you see we're busy?" Click. Oooooooooooo........that's a dead dial tone.

I was stunned.

No. I never bothered again. Who fucking needs the hassle? I'm pretty sure a monkey in a tie (I mean literally a monkey. I find monkeys in ties drinking Bourbon hilarious. Never gets old) in some unknown health agency devising policy is preventing this relationship for going a tad smoother.

***

My wife and her uncles are still reeling from the death of her father. I don't blame them. He was a special guy.

They want answers to many questions. He already had the cancer so how come they were caught off guard? Even when he was in the hospital they were (or at least acted that way) clueless. They can't believe doctors couldn't have had some measure to help prevent or diagnose things quicker.

***

I'll never regret my time in the bank. For it is there I was able to see, behind the English cut suits, cuff links and fabulous food, was a whole lotta bull shit. One of the tricks so-called experts use is to at least play and look the part. Obama, for example, has this to an art form in politics. He has people fooled.

I say fooled because by now, no one could possibly believe this guy has anything unique to offer.

How?

Investment experts who came to talk to us were good at showing they understood things other than finance. Like, for example, history. It was a smart ploy to use philosophical quotes and show that you knew stuff outside your field. The only thing is that a lot of it was less fact and more just opinion. It had little to do with providing evidence as to why their investment philosophy was better than the next guy. The evidence they provided was enough to raise skepticism.

Why talk numbers? The proof was right there. In the prospectus. Rate of return 8%. "Expected return of 9% because we feel..."

Ah, "we feel!" Gotcha! If they were soooo sure of their theorems (and many were), why did they have all sorts of disclosures about not being able to guarantee returns?

Because, folks, they knew squat at the end of the day. Just like TV execs can't explain why one show works and another doesn't. Or a book publisher knows how one good book sells one million copies, and another good one ten thousand.

Look, I don't profess to have some inside knowledge. Heck, I probably do know less than most, all I'm saying is I couldn't face a client to try and convince him of a narrative I wasn't sold on myself.

One client in particular opened eyes, though at the time I didn't want to admit it. He wanted my opinion on things. He wanted different perspectives. He knew the line he was being fed was bunk. It was too refined for his taste - he was a street wise kinda guy.

Truth is, I couldn't because he wasn't technically my client but my sr. partner. It was like making a pass at someone's wife. I just couldn't go against his views and I told the client this. He wasn't impressed but I had to protect my own image and ass.

But. Lesson learned.

***

When you look at the men who ran/run America's economy what/who do you see? You see a bunch of academics sucking each others cocks swimming in their own cum of nonsensical theories. "Ooo, feels so gooood! You soooo smart!"

That's what you see. To think that the assholes who made a mess of things (some have Nobel prizes) were going to fix it was ludicrous on its own but, hey, they had a new messenger. Snazzy-doo "It's the other guy's fault" Obama. More like "I'm with stupid."

It's simple. They put down the numbers and then build a narrative around the numbers. There's no such thing as a theory in finance.

Sure, some guys have a gifted knack at trading in different specialties like stocks, options, whatever but they represent a miniscule sample. You can't tell me all these guys running the show know something we don't. Ok. Some are Certified Financial Analysts. They grasp basic functional tenets. Beyond that, they ain't Popper, know what I'm saying?

Which brings me back to my father-in-law.

I explained to my wife that doctors, even though they operate in one of the more evidence based disciplines, just don't know. They couldn't and still can't answer her because they don't know.

They. Don't. Know.

It's not because they're stupid. It's because humanity is way beyond our abilities to control and understand.

Credit to the doctors though (except for the odd rude moron who thinks he was sent by God), most are more willing to admit their mortal limitations. Just wish politicians would too.

***

Prevention is a little like finance in that if we get the premise or assumption wrong it can lead to a mess.

And sometimes the wrong premise we invent can have lasting effects on our lives.

Enough of this. Time for some Mini-Wheats.