2010-03-21

High Arctic An Important Region: Is Canada Prepared?

In the 1990s, many Canadians asked "why do we need a military for?" It was believed we were so peaceful, war was inconceivable anyone would want to go to with us. With the money saved, we could put it in health. What else?

It was/is a naive, myopic and irresponsible thing to believe. My stance was, A) We don't know what the future holds so why not at least maintain what we've got and B) What about the Arctic?

The slow decline of our military (once the third largest in the world just after 1945) to one with the smallest budget in NATO - except for Iceland which has no military - is a national embarrassment. Our military capabilities have fallen so far behind that increasing the budget will have little impact according to military experts and scholars. Some have called for Canada, since it falls under American protection (sorry nationalists but sovereignty includes being able to stand up for yourself), to become a specialized force. Canada has the talent and know-how to pull that off.

With the Arctic polar caps melting it's believed as much as 25% of oil reserves can be tapped into. No wonder countries like Denmark, Norway, Russia and the United States have stepped up their claims in the Arctic. As it stands, Canada is a partner and participant in Arctic issues with these nations.

However, what happens if Russia flat out takes control of an island against Canada's wishes? Does it become inevitable we have to ask for American military assistance? At which point, the U.S. will ask for concessions. Knowing the leverage is in their favor, they could ask for a lot. Had Canada maintained a large enough army and navy it could always show enough of a force by simple being present in the Arctic.

Predictably, nationalists will squawk about Canadian sovereignty. But that's all it will be: Squawking. The Canadian government is aware of the situation and are further aware they will have to arrange an new special partnership with the Americans (and maybe other nations) at some point. Unfortunately, I don't see how it can be a 50-50 thing. If Canada says no, the U.S. can turn around (and this is just a worst case scenario) and say "ciao, we can do it alone." And then Canada is powerless against the great military powers. If it say yes, it has no choice but to negotiate terms favorable to the U.S..

True. I don't know for sure if we had a military it would put more leverage in our favor but how could it not on some level?

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