Sweden's Long Game; Quebec And Sweden Comparison; Quebec MUST Open Schools At Full Capacity In September

The interesting thing about Canada is the country, as a whole, hasn't been hit hard with the coronavirus yet the leaders acted as if it was.

Which is bizarre and falls into an over reaction.

Some facts:

-Remove Quebec (50 651)and there are 39 539 cases. Remove Ontario (27 533) and now it's down to 12 006 for all of Canada! That's 318 cases per million. So remind me why they're engaging in 'phasing' they're economies back into business? If anything, a case can be made that provinces could have opted for a much more enlightened and less draconian approach. Reacting what happened to Quebec is not a reason to install the same policies as they did.

-Ontario has 190 cases per million (QC has 603). Yet, Doug Ford looks like he's about to have a nervous breakdown.

-Like in Quebec, Ontario's numbers are largely thanks to the disaster in the nursing homes. Interestingly, this reality somehow gets conflated with the general population. It has distorted our perception of how to deal with the virus.

-As for the deaths, Quebec has 528 per million. Ontario 155. The national average is 188. It puts us in ok territory overall. Certainly not strong enough to brag about being better than most countries including the USA. But still, not bad.

-How about by age group in Quebec? 90% of deaths are in the 70+ demographic with 73% in the 80+ group.

This is where people need to start paying closer attention to for when September comes around.

I'm hearing a bit too much talk about not returning to school under normal circumstances.

This is a terrible idea; a travesty for a number of obvious reasons.

First, statically and medically, the kids are largely spared of this virus nor does it seem their major transmitters of it but this is evolving as we continue to learn about it. But it certainly looks like the virus isn't lethal for the majority of the population.

Second, we're sending a bad message to them. We're teaching them to not follow reason or science. We're teaching them to cower under a cloud of fear and uncertainty. There's no reason to not open schools in September.

Third, the unintended consequences of potentially damaging kids. Is this virus a reason to deprive high school kids of their high school experience? Learning twice a week at home on Zoom is not learning. It's a waste of time and resources. Again, it sends a bad message of not learning to live and cope in difficult times. What happens to gym and extra-curricular activities? What happens to science classes with access to labs and other stuff people don't have at home? Is it wise to leave kids at home? We have all sorts of laws preventing them from all sorts of things - including no adult supervisions - but will now leave kids across the province home while parents work? What kind of madness is this? For the coronavirus?  We all know teenagers always act responsibly right? I find it hard to believe and fathom educators, politicians and parents alike think this is wise. Never mind the idea that criminals up to no good now know a bunch of kids are home alone.

The way I see it, Legault has to start hammering home the message school has to get back to normal in September. If (and it's a big if) there's a second wave, we'll deal with it then. The U.S. and Europe aren't even talking schemes like this. In Europe back to school it was.

It would be devastating if we do this on multiple levels because it in effect erases 2021. This should not be a plausible scenario.

The other part of the equation leaders must quell and manage is the idea 'we'll do this until a vaccine is found'. We don't know when - and if -  it's coming. It shouldn't be the sole driver of how we deal with the virus. Even if it arrives, will there be enough? Will it be safe? What happens if it comes from China and people reject it? Whatever quantities we have will likely go to the demographic most affected and that's not the kids.

Living for a vaccine is absurd and not living. Time for us to show our kids how to be men and women  and not frightened cowards.

Being concerned is perfectly normal and acceptable but when it traverses into a fear that leads us to all sorts of over thinking how we live, it becomes a classic case of letting a disease control us.

I hope parents think long and hard before making children pay the price for this virus.

But let's get back to Quebec and also introduce Sweden.

Sweden at the moment is taking a lot of jabs and body blows at the moment. I have no idea if they will succeed but it's interesting to me.

Media right now likes to pump it's rising death tolls and cherry pick one data point - Norway - to prove its point.

Sweden always acknowledged cases and deaths were going to be high in the short-term by not locking down. They may even waver.

And while the theory of herd immunity seems a long way off, they're still ahead of the rest of the West. Sweden is simply a long-game here and so the jury is naturally out. I don't know why media has chosen to make them public enemy #1.

The rest of the world went with the faulty models predicting catastrophe by Neil Fegurson of Imperial College.  Now he has resigned in disgrace not only for his bad predictions that led to a worldwide lockdown with no actually science to back it up, but for breaking his own quarantine protocols to go bang his mistress.

Sweden is staying the course.

So just how bad is it? They say 'OMG 10 times worse than Norway!' but not much else.

Yes. Next to their Scandinavian neighbours Denmark and Norway, Sweden doesn't look too good.

But it's still doing better than Belgium, Spain, the UK and Italy. It's more or less on par with France and higher than Holland but not in any great way. Canada and Germany remain better.

So, when all is said and done, they may be middle of the pack. It's not about who has better death rate figures which everyone is fixated on. It's about who comes out in most in tact avoiding negative unintended consequences. Sweden is betting they'll at worse be in line with other countries and if a second wave hits, they'll be in a better place to deal with than we are.

Are we going to shut down again? That would be foolish.

Which is why we should be pulling for Sweden.

Sweden's numbers are 435 per million dead. Quebec is 528. Sweden has 3677 per million cases. Quebec has a whopping 6062 per million cases. So far, we know Quebec media shouldn't be talking smack about Sweden. Canada in total has 2377 cases per million and 188 deaths per million as noted.

Now let's delve into  Sweden's breakdown of who is dying. 

25% are 90+. 41% are 80+. 22% are 70+. That is, 88% come from the 70+ age bracket similar to Quebec.

So remind me why exactly the kids are being thrown under the bus again and how Sweden is so much worse than anyone else?

Sweden is achieving this figures without a lockdown and Quebec (not to mention European countries and U.S. states) is surpassing it with a lockdown.

Now it remains to be seen what the trade-offs will be. Recent reports show Sweden's economy is struggling.

I still say the jury is out.