Dreaming In Beaver Colours

Some Canadian sports fans still dream of an NFL team landing in Toronto.

I admit, for an ever so brief time, I even hoped but then I woke up.

Just too many factors running against this ever happening.

Let me get the good out of the way first. Toronto is a first class city with a lot of money and critical mass - around 4.5 million people live in the GTA. It rests in the part of the Ontario economic belt which is among the wealthiest regions in North America. It also already has a sports infrastructure in place so that could help a start up I suppose in the short term but what about that scary phrase "long-term viability?"

Here the story gets murkier.

I see life in increments. Show me you can do the little things and maybe we can talk about something bigger. Do well with that bigger thing and we can move on. You know the game. I apply the same philosophy when listening to hopeless romantic Quebec nationalists yap on about independence. Improve the unemployment rate, social services like health and education, energize your entrepreneurial class, lower taxes (which means reduce the reliance on the welfare state), mature in regards to minority rights, show a plan for how you will create a currency and system of passports (critical to any serious nation) and pay down the debt and then let's talk about going out into the cold, dark world on your own.

Simple. Show me the money. Oh, wait. You can't because we don't have any.

The first lesson in reality. Toronto already has a professional football team. They're called the Toronto Argonauts in the CFL. It has history and tradition. It even had Doug Flutie for a time. It is said that the CFL could not survive without Canada's largest city represented. Sorta like no New York teams in other sports. I tend to concur with this.

The Argos have trouble drawing. Averaging 21 300 to be exact. Mediocre and not good enough if you want to survive in the cut throat American enterprise known as the NFL. The NFL has no time for small-timers. If you can't be bothered to show up for an institution like the Argos in a league Canadians love to brag about, what makes anyone thinking of investing think it would change with an NFL franchise where the cost per ticket would, I imagine, rise substantially given you now have to compete with NFL standard salaries among other costs.

In the NFL pre season games for the Buffalo Bills (the team everyone assumes would move to the 416 area code) hosted by Toronto, the attendance was solid but not spectacular with the last game attracting only 40 000 people. See the history of the NFL in Toronto including head to head games here.

If I were to invest, I'd want Toronto to 'show me the seats.'

Then there's the whole Canadian vs. U.S. dollar thing. The currency exchange throughout our history has been usually in favor of the USA - naturally. We've had our proud moments where our dollar was stronger but that was more of a short-term reality less to do with the prowess of our economy and more to do with whatever afflicts the powerful America economy at the time. Over the long-term, you have to assume the Canadian dollar is anywhere between .73 and .85 per cent of $1 USD.

Starting in the hole that way is not the best scnerio. Doable, as we see with the Blue Jays in MLB, but not great either. Then there's the whole tax problem. But let's stop there.

I've merely touched on a couple factors working against Toronto getting an NFL team. But even on just a superficial level, one can surmise rather confidently that it's not a fit.

More realistically, a second NHL team may work because Toronto is absolutely hockey mad - more so than Montreal. It supports several more junior and professional teams than Montreal does.

More importantly, focus on ensuring Toronto's success in the CFL. That means having Torontonians buy into the pride of the CFL.

Leave the NFL to the big boys for now.