Daily Derp: Resist The Fear

It's been two weeks now since I've last posted. The reason has been mostly because the pace of events unfolding demand a lot of deep and critical thinking and I haven't been able to find the time to sit and write a coherent post about what I'm observing.

There's a lot to digest indeed and I've been left, like many I'm sure, somewhat shell shocked and astonished at the suspension of reason and logic not to mention of a breakdown of the civil order thanks to some astonishingly perplexing stupidity of so-called leaders on the continent.

I have catalogued a bunch of stories and links. I have to be carful because these short-term stories can  disrupt and cloud how you see the bigger picture.

But let's do this derp style. I will be addressing the other issues - ie the other pandemic of SJW unhinged - in another post.

First, here's a fantastic run down of where we're at with Corona.

And here.

2020: Rise of the pant shitting hypocrite.

Or.

The great tragedy of 2020 is it's the year 'tyranny of the minority and mob' ruled. The year science and reason went 'Boink'.





In the case of the coronavirus, from the onset models projected millions of deaths. Going on six months later, there are c. 509 000 deaths worldwide.

But the fearful and ominous projections initially pumped up has done the damage. No amount of good news will walk people away from this unfortunate irresponsible declaration. Sadly,  it proves how easy it is to keep people in perpetual fear and the only way they stop is if the government declares the virus vanquished or a vaccine is found.

For a virus that doesn't threaten the vast majority of the population and a 99.7% survival rate.

'Follow the science' they say.

The way I see it overall? The lockdowns acted as a delay mechanism. It was to stop the spread but that was a foolish track to take. And this talk of a 'second wave' is really just the first wave delayed.

We should have just taken the hit up front but instead decided to ruin our economies and lives.

From the onset all they've done is do the opposite. They used and continue to use faulty projections models as 'science'. The Canadian government just yesterday once again came out with projections - recall that Tam had warned as many as 22 000 to 40 000 would happen here....by the end of April. We have around 8500 as of today.

As if projections haven't been discredited enough (in any other field of life these people would be fired), out they come with more projections this time expecting as many as 108 000 total cases by July 12.  I'm glad they seem to have tinkered with their Projection Tinker Box Transmorgrifer but what exactly is the point but to install caution and fear?

We've been averaging roughly 300 or so cases for the past couple of weeks across the country with the vast chunk of that being in Ontario and Quebec. Let's assume a surge does happen, are they expecting it to shoot up to four times those numbers as we saw a couple of months back? And even then, with all that we know(low IFR for example) and the preparation in place, so what?

Seriously. So. What? Isolate the vulnerable and do the social distance dance. This will be accompanied by the fact people, already sufficiently alerted to its existence, will voluntarily slow down activities. There's no justification for making anything mandatory nor locking down.

None.

But that won't happen. Too logical. Too sciency.

Stay scared and thirsty my friends.

But there they are. Pounding the table of superstition and fear warning of 'resurgences' and still more cases.

Last, the trade-offs. That we deliberately ignored doing a cost-benefit analysis out of pure superstition or commitment to 'save every life' was a spectacular dereliction of duty and responsibility in my view.

For every person we 'saved' it's possible the lockdowns probably cost 2 or 3 deaths. Not to mention permanent damage to one's life. The other aspect that obviously gets NO MENTION is the fact if young people end up committing suicide due to a lockdown, that's a greater loss to the society at large than a person who is 85. We may lose the wisdom of such a person but that's life lived nonetheless. A 26 year-old who takes their life means we potentially lose 50 years of a productive life.

This makes people queasy - especially these days where the politics of emotion wins the day - but we must consider these fall outs. It's ludicrous not to.

The Coronavirus over reaction will go down as one of the great examples of a moral and health panic in history. One in which citizens were failed by poor leaders and over-protective public health officials who were given way too much power to guide economic policy of all things.

People who supported the lockdowns will have to one day face the lives it ruined. I'm of the opinion now they should be led off in handcuffs for the destruction they've caused based on muddled thinking.

Yukon Ho!

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Toronto makes masks mandatory.

Here's the thing. Cases have dropped significantly in Canada. But because we're unable to keep a reasoned disposition, we see what goes on elsewhere and immediately think it will happen here.

It's foolish and absurd to make mandatory declarations on such a basis. It conditions people to get to used to a habit they shouldn't accept and to look to the government to take care of them. Worse, to hide from this fact we invent all sorts of vapid terms like 'mask it or casket' (despite the low IFR for the virus among the vast majority or people), 'wear masks, save the economy!' (which is absolutely a childish idiotic slogan.

The economy and the psyche is already damaged and these sorts of draconian measures will only hurt them further. For example, I will not enter places that compels me to wear a mask. I'd rather sit and wait this madness out. Then comes all the tiresome righteous bull shit of 'wear one, be courteous' and whatever other insipid attempt to force a collective ill on people. Bet some of those people who say that have road rage. Or are just plain rude people most of the time.

How about this? If you're too scared of the virus, how about YOU stay home? We've become a society of complete and utter sissies and pussies.

Athletes today are so wealthy and pampered, they choose to not play. Meanwhile, once upon a time Ted Williams, Joe Di Maggio and Jimmy Stewart went off to war, killed some Nazis and came back to kick ass.

Pansies today's man.

This is not a virus that will kill you. Get over your fears already. It makes no sense to live your life in fear of potential 'future waves' for this. It's preposterous.

What really outages me though, is the utter horse shit public health officials pimp out. In the USA, they allowed for protests which ended up in violent riots to take place because, get this, 'social justice is more important than social distance.'

It's the same crap up here. As I've said from the onset. Do not let medical bureaucrats dictate policy or else we'll never get out of this vortex of fear. They should absolutely NOT have a say in economic policy.

A health official shouldn't be saying, 'wear a mask, save the economy' (PSA from the same person who brought us 'Stay home, save lives) because they're not fucking economists and have NOT weighed the trade offs or the unintended consequences of their demands.

Their sole job is to be doctors. How we give them the keys to the car is beyond comprehension. It's like giving a marketing exec the power to over ride the CFO.

The cold, hard truth about masks is what it has always been. Their effectiveness is INCONCLUSIVE beyond N95 and KF94. If you're wearing a cloth mask or one of those pale blue medical masks, you're engaging in theatre; Coronaporn. You're not protecting yourself from the virus.

As to the idea that it stops droplets from asymptomatic people from spreading, that's still a precarious assertion. You need to basically make out with someone to get it. It has a high spread rate but it's not easily contacted like we first thought as far as I know.

I do think the clams being made at this point are with little merit other than 'just do it, just in case' and that 'it can reduce spread'. This is NOT a reason, especially if your claim to 'follow the science' to suspend civil liberties and make it mandatory.

All it does is trade your sense of independence to submit to the flock and engaging in a petty psychological games.

The virus is out there. Don't be an idiot. Social distance. Stay home if you don't have to go out. It would be nice to travel but it's just not the time. Look at it as a chance to save money and pay some debt down. I'm no fan of how we're facing it - especially the way we're teaching our kids to cower but we have to be realistic. Note, I don't mean accepting the craziness of 'new normals' but it's not worth completely ignoring some advice and protocols. I give the finger where I feel it's necessary

Life is all about risks. But I fear we've opened the Pandora's Box of fear that has unleashed itself and has gotten away from our ability to reason. No, saying 'just do it for each other' is NOT reason.

It's following orders.

I don't know what else to say. The more the numbers drop, the more we succumb to fear. It's bizarre and disheartening.

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A problem with this is it's being instituted when cases have been tending downwards in Canada. As fo the notion it will prevent 'spikes' is very difficult to ascertain. So officials can easily claim they work without actual empirical evidence.

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Quebec's cases - like Canada - have dropped to negligible numbers.

Ontario, where the buffoons decided on a mask compulsion program, there were...157 cases....in a population of 14 million.

Quebec has c. 70 per day.

Given this good news, the government decided they were going to stop daily updates and push it to weekly ones. Reasonable to me. They probably thought, rightly, let's get people back on track here.

But not to the sheep.

There was a vociferous pushback. People want their coronaporn. It's like watching the news after a murder spree. You have murder porn and you have corona porn.

People want their security blanket. They want the government to guide them. They convince themselves it's to stay informed - and no doubt that is the case for some people - but let's be frank. It's a bizarre feitsh to keep themselves in perpetual fear.

So the government relented.

Now people can be caressed into wearing a mask and develop OCD killing their hands and immune system with Purell.

I don't wear a mask and I pretend to squirt my hands when I go into stores. My job has me going in and out of stores, if I keep washing my hands, my skin will disappear.

Follow the science they say. Well, the science says it doesn't spread as easily from surfaces as first thought.

So adjust already.

But that would demand an enlightened approach to all this.

I've not been impressed with North America one iota through all this.



Digression. Anyone else troubled by Roger Waters' unhinged anti-semitism? Christ, what an asshole in general. A foul human being.

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Data points matter. It's worth noting, and I'm just going from memory here, but if you're under 55, you're more likely to die from several things including medical ailments and car accidents than you are of the Coronavirus.

And if you contact it, it may suck, but the probabilities of it you survive are, like, very high.

But you never hear positive aspects about the virus. It's been doom and gloom since March. We have to lift people from this darkness. But don't look to public health officials for this (a doctor friend, who I mention later on, has taken his hyper precautionary principle stances to discomforting heights. He feels people shouldn't be allow to attend sporting events or concerts if they don't have vaccination papers. That means he favors some kind of certificate dot or card or app or some other dystopian idiocy to soothe his fears. It's nuts) or politicians. They've failed spectacularly - save for some here and there.

And forget the media. Fear sells papers and since they're already an illiterate bunch of illiberal fools, they're al to happy to play the role as enemies of the people.

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My prediction and theory.

Sweden and USA will prove to actually be ahead of the curve if inoculation is attainable and realistic. They're taking their hits now and will be better off over the long-term. The CDC estimates the number of Americans who have contracted the disease can be as hIgh as 10x the known cases. Or closer to 25 million. Inoculation here we come! This means, they unwittingly could be on their way to herd immunity if it's attainable.

In the case of Sweden, without having shut down their economy and fucking with the psyche of people.

Not even Lovecraft could tap into our inner-most fears like Corona. Boy have the media and politicians done a job on people.

The other theory I have is, once time passes and sound minds examine the pandemic (a viral pneumonia essentially), the IFR will fall still closer in line with the flu and deaths will be adjusted downwards.

Just a guess based on what I'm reading outside the narrative.

Re-stated:

Somehow ‘fighting to keep cases low’ has become a way or referendum on how to judge countries on their ‘compassion’ or the quality of the health systems. Which, of course, is wrongheaded and bound to lead to all sorts of misguided thinking resulting in dubious policies. It leaves people vulnerable to really dumb thoughts.

In the context of the USA and how it fits with how it’s perceived, this is a perfect scenario for anti-Americans. 

They still don’t have the worst case per million and deaths per million figures. Even in comparison to Canada, certain stats don’t tell the whole picture. Some show Canada is doing better, others the USA. But it’s not even about that and who cares? 

Cases on their own means shit. If anything, it’s probably a GOOD thing. Sweden and USA are getting it out of the way.

As for China, indeed. You have to be one tool (Hello Popovich and Lebron!) to believe those numbers. Just a couple of weeks back somber headlines about a worse version of the virus came out as a second wave as China took measures including stopping air travel to Beijing. Yet, the number of cases never moved?

/strokes chin.

My bet is this: The virus, when all is said and done in the not so distant future and sober accounting takes place, will be right in line with the flu. It’s already at a .2/.3 IFR if I’m correct. I expect that will drop as the avg. age drops per case. Yes, deaths seems to be a lagging metric to cases (ie Florida, Arizona) but we’ll see. I also expect death numbers to be adjusted downwards.

Just a hunch. Again. I could be wrong of course.

Comment/conversation I read:

"My theory is that there’s a core of legitimate medical science at the center of a perfect storm of authoritarianism, statism, and Progressive totalitarianism behind all this. It’s the culmination of a civil society that has been taught to rely solely on the government, and specifically the executive branch and associated bureaucracies, for all its needs and an embrace of the tactics employed by the social justice movement, e.g. “canceling”, to attack dissent and ensure conformity. And all of this is supported by the “Cathedral” in ways so blatant that I suspect, at the end of it all, a lot of people who would’ve happily muddled along will be if not red-pilled at least closer to waking up to the myriad ways in which academia, the media, and the state manipulate them."

"....the main thing separating these leftists from being true libertarians was that they didn’t understand the difference between “Obligations” and “Preferences”. And the main reason for this is that they think there is ALWAYS an optimal choice, and therefore preference doesn’t exist. 

An obligation is something that you are morally or ethically compelled to do. A preference is something that you choose to do, even though there is no obligation. To a libertarian, you have an obligation not to interfere with someone else’s freedoms. But choosing to give money to a charity is a preference. 

This became important as we talked about masks. To leftists, wearing a mask was clearly an ethical obligation because it was the most optimal thing to do in most cases in order to reduce the spread of COVID (set aside the debate about science for a minute here). And so the leftist basically says, “You should be wearing a mask, so I don’t blame the government mandating this if people really won’t do what is best for them”. In their mind, decided that one is always obligated to do the most optimal thing, not whatever flows from their principals. And because he is not able to distinguish “Obligation” from “Preference”, and “should” from “must”, he will always be a statist. 

To a libertarian, wearing a mask is a preference. There is nothing in the NAP that says a libertarian should inconvenience themselves in order to reduce the risk of a natural pathogen jumping around in the wild. (Note this calculus might change if you have good reason to believe you are infected.) Not wearing a mask is a neutral action. Wearing the mask is a choice that one might prefer to do, but is not obligated to do. 

Overall, I think this same confusion becomes the heart of why we were shut down. People traded good ideas (it’s a good idea to limit your travel) for regulations (you must not travel). Like vaccinations, people have confused something that one really ought to prefer for something that must be done. And this has created the situation we now live in.

Socialism is the believe humans can be 'optimized' through state control and planning. Someone summarized this comment as "you're not free, unless you're free to be wrong'.

"The question is, can you really prevent the spread of a disease that is already widely spread?

I believe the answer is no. At this point, it is going to finish spreading throughout the vast majority of the population. It might even become a recurring event like the flu or the common cold, though I don’t know what the death rate will look like.

Lots of people are holding out hope for a vaccine before returning to “normal”. But we don’t generally predicate our lives today on the future existence of a potential solution to a problem. I am also not confident that the vaccine is going to be any better than the one for influenza, which is to say it will only really be circumstantially effective. I don’t think we are ever going to eradicate this like smallpox or polio.

Too little was done too late to contain this virus, and now too much is being done way too late and mostly in vain. Perhaps I am wrong but as we don’t today have a vaccine widely available and we definitely don’t have reliable data on the effectiveness of the not-yet-existent vaccine, putting liberties on hold seems like wishful thinking turned into foolish policy."

Which has been my position from day one.

Think of it. In the beginning we were told little or nothing of this virus was known, yet they went ahead a pushed policies despite the incertitude. Worse, it was based on faulty premises and models and we haven't really evolved with the moving data. We've remained scared and operate from this point forward. We're not following science, we're letting the virus dictate to us.

We've gone from flattening of curves, not overwhelming the system to whatever the fuck it is now. Oh, stopping the spread of a virus that is ALREADY IN CIRCULATION.

 A complete exercise in human folly and hubris. It's bound to only compound the terrible unintended consequences we've already unleashed.

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Canadians who brag and look upon the USA with pity should proceed with caution. When you look at the numbers closely, Canada is actually in line and some cases worse than the USA.

A doctor I know, is a master cherry-picker of data mixed in with TDS. Hence, I get 'what a shitshow down south. Bunch of mental defectives'. Yup. You read right.

So I wondered, are we that superior to justify such idiotic and obtuse comments?

The answer is no. Like usual, Canadians exhibit a misplaced smug superiority complex. They just see 'cases are rising in America' and automatically assume we're doing better....because.

For example, yes the USA has far more cases than we do (4 times the rate) but death to cases is higher in Canada at 8.2% to 4.8% in the USA. They have a higher death per million rate at 393 to 228 here but it's not an amount to justify such squawking. Again, they have one major difference we don't have: NYC.

The thing is the U.S. is a highly eclectic, mobile, aggressive, antsy, energetic, dynamic society filled with audacity and risk taking. Florida is a state with so much packed into it, of course it's going to see cases. Canada is far more subdued and easier to contain as a calmer society.

The key metic here is the average age contracting it dropped from 65 to 37 years old. This means death rates may hold and ICU units won't be overwhelmed given most people will deal with mild to some strong symptoms but not life threatening.

Not to underplay the seriousness of the virus or situation but a lot of perspective is needed to keep our fears in check.

Just intangible things to consider.

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Be careful with the headlines. CNN, the myth making tabloid, provides a perfect example. It read along the lines of: USA is 4% of the world's population but make up 25% of Corona cases.

To a person who knows how to read statistics, this is a completely meaningless stat. It combines two facts to attempt to form an ominous cloud.

It's irrelevant USA is 4% of the world's population. This is not a proper point of reference. The USA is a completely different society from most nation's on earth. Why they're at 25% can be attributed to several factors including vastly more testing. Nor does it mean it's necessarily a bad thing. It's just a title meant to keep people in fear. Who knows? To make sure they remain sheep.

In any event, you're crazy if you think they have more cases than China. China is straight up lying about their figures.

I get the impression so much effort and energy has gone into keeping people scared, they have to keep the theatre going because someone has to be making money off this.

In the States, there's an incentive to do so because the election is around the corner.

The GOP is also flirting with making mask wearing mandatory. I don't know if it's because it's for political reasons but it's a miscalculation I reckon. Republicans are made up of conservatives, Independents and libertarians. They take their liberty seriously. So not sure if this is a wise move.

For now, cases are rising but that in of itself is not necessarily bad. The death rate continues to drop for now.

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Comment from Reason:

"...It’s worse than that. As I’ve mentioned, I’m a mortician in the DC Metro Area. The shenanigans with death certificates is breathtaking. I’ve had a woman with a broken neck on my table, COD on the certificate was COVID-19. Many, many other cases of “died with, not died of”, but listed as primary COD per the CDC guidelines.

There’s a new study from Penn State making the case that the case count’s low by a factor of 80. Balance that with the gross over-counting of deaths, and this was a total non-event."

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The tragedy of all this was the 'stop the virus at all costs' based on wrong models'. The results were predictable. But what's even more troubling is officials are sticking to these hopelessly inaccurate models to CONTINUE lockdowns.For example, Texas re-locked down just as businesses were turning the corner. How about lives to politicians think people have?

Of course, once again, large corporations get to stay open and the little guy pays the price. There has to be some kind of karma awaiting officials and people who do this to others. Ironic, how they always claim wearing masks is 'courteous'. But don't think twice to destroy lives.

Do people not grasp the severity of this stupidity?

There is no question in my mind when all this irrational madness passes, we will look about our reaction with shame if not disgust.

The questions will be along the lines of: How can an ostensibly advanced society with all this knowledge get it so wrong?