2018-05-09

Trump Pulls Out Of Iran Deal

Quick thoughts. 
There are a many ways to look at this. One way is how does North Korea interpret it if they manage to get their own deal with the USA? Personally, I don't think it should impact anything on that front. North and South Korea will pursue and chart their own course along with American involvement. The Americans are likely to just broker a deal. Then again, neo-conservatives like Bolton liked pulling out. 
Another, more on point, is the fact Obama never got his deal ratified by the Senate. Had he done so as proper, the likelihood of the deal being torn up would have been essentially nil. Instead, like the Paris Accord, Obama took a gamble and thought it to be wise to do so without American support. I say gambled because he probably thought a) Hillary was going to be the next President which would have further cemented the deal and b) that no President would go as far as to do so anyway.
Then Turmp got elected.
Poof.
Another miscalculation by Obama.
As for the deal itself, I never really saw a compelling reason why to keep it. It's alway fascinating to have to watch the EU beg to keep it which makes me wonder why? Can it be they had their own little designs in Iran particularly where oil is concerned? Europe, as we know, has gone full derp into the green thing so they stopped drilling and now have to go out and get the stuff like a bunch of hobos.

The bigger miscalculation by Obama was to make a deal with a country that was ready to implode sparked by its own population. The deal - plus the inexplicable $1.2 billion in cash, gave the theocracy a lifeline. And for what exactly? 

If anyone knows anything about the 'balance of power' alliances formed in Europe c. 1648-1914, you know there's always ways to work around deals. Iran was never going to play ball in my view and I didn't see a compelling argument it was indeed a 'good start'.
Again, Obama. He was no foreign policy guru so I'm just betting the tearing up of the deal is a non-event/starter.
Iran probably burned the cash by now and sanctions maybe reimposed putting a precarious nation once again in limbo and vulnerable to being toppled. This was probably always the best outcome. Let Iran resolve itself. The Americans should be focusing on that. Not toothless deals that gave more life to a brutal regime. 
The key message here is don't bypass the Senate and Congress if you want deals and policies that define your legacy to stick.