2011-08-05

Debt, Debt, Debt

Much is being made of the ECB "bailing out" Italy by buying up bonds.
Italy has many problems but despite a high debt as a percentage of GDP,  it owes most of it to itself.

It's a net saving (unlike North America and like Japan) nation. Italians save their money largely because they don't trust anything let alone the government.

Still, institutional investors have become impatient with Italy and Spain.

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As an aside, likely because of widespread tax evasion, Italy has a black economy estimated at 35% of its GDP! 
When it comes to economics, Italy has different characterisitcs than its G7 partners. For example, relative to its population and economic size, Italy has the smallest market capitalization in the group. Canada, by contrast, has a bigger stock market with a smaller economy. Switzerland, which is even smaller than Canada, also has a larger stock market than its neighbour.

Part of the reason, I reckon and have read, is Italians don't believe in public trading or giving off a piece of their business to strangers. It remains overwhelmingly a parochial (but sophisticated) nation of dynastic small-medium size businesses rooted in artisanship.

It's part of their mystique (and branding power) at this point.

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As for the United States consider from the second link above:

"If the bond vigilantes attack, the U.S. Government's cost of servicing its debt would soar, perhaps to levels that are too high, assuming current funding levels of government commitments, such as national defense, Social Security, Medicare, senior citizen prescriptions, and Medicaid.



As a result, Congressional officials would then be left with the difficult choices of: 1) a massive cut in spending or 2) a massive increase in taxes. Or an onerous combination."

Personally, it should be a combination, but with a strong accent on the former.

Canada's economic environment is stable, however, how long can it last with the Americans experiencing so much trouble? Trade witht the United States account for 85% of our economy.

Reason dictates as some point we'll naturally feel the pinch.

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