2020-08-03

What If You're The Outlier!?

The pandemic is an all-consuming tape worm eating out the brains of people. Well, that and Trump Derangement Syndrome. Apparently it's all Trump's fault where New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts and other states failed. The executive does not have the power to run states. The Governors do. The management of a pandemic is the responsibility of the CDC. So the first two entities in charge are the CDC and the Governors. Trump, in fact, was the first to call for shut down of airs space and lockdowns in which he was mocked and rebuffed. He also spoke of the benefits of HCQ also leading to derision from the media.

Covid and TDS broke people's minds in 2020.

Anyway.

Two terms I loathe. One, is the phrase 'right side of history'. Not too long ago I had a friend hurl all the usual vapid sentences all too common these days. The other is 'follow the science'. This from a guy, God bless him, who once told me to 'stop reading books'. Apparently it clouded my judgment of 'reality' since 'there's no truth'. A thought process that could only come from an illiterate mind vulnerable to illiberal thinking. How often do you hear, once you engage someone, them say, 'I'm that informed like you are but...' They admit there's a superficial outlook but still feel the need to infer you'r the 'extremist'.

Truly bizarre.

In discussing with people about the pandemic, when told about the hight survival rate and improved treatments, this is not enough. They zero in on the outliers. A family member, who knows better but is caught up in the hysteria, said, 'what if you're the outlier?' in justifying wearing those utterly useless medical masks.

In that statement you have to deal with two issues. One is the concept of an outlier and the other the empirical evidence on mask usage.

So if you say, for example, 'there's a 99.8% survival rate', the comeback will focus on the .2% part. Which, when you ponder it, can mean we need to focus on all the statistical improbabilities that threaten us across various activities and diseases. In other words, a path to eliminating risk.

An impractical and irrational goal unless you cede every single bit of your agency to the government. At the moment, they're dictating where was can congregate, how many people we're allowed to be with, how we move around in a store led by arrows, selecting which businesses stay open and which don't, arbitrary protocols, mandating masks and so on.

It's complete take over of our lives and we're letting it happen because of faulty premises like relying on outliers the media loves to hammer on. They like to pluck out the stories of the 'healthy' individual who got Covid-19 and died and twist that story into your mind like a knife into someone's back.

In a way, it's a good example of how socialism would work. Pay close attention kids.

Do NOT conflate this position with not taking the virus seriously.

An outlier is:

"In statistics, an outlier is a data point that differs significantly from other observations. An outlier may be due to variability in the measurement or it may indicate experimental error; the latter are sometimes excluded from the data set. An outlier can cause serious problems in statistical analyses."

Interestingly, there are several outliers at play at the same time during this pandemic. 

For example, 47% of all cases in Italy are from the Lombardy region with 70% of all cases restricted to four regions: Lombardy, Piedmont, Emilia-Romagna, Veneto.

The same thing can be observed, closer to home, here in Canada and the United States. Within each, we see regional outliers. For example, Quebec is by far not only the hardest hit province in the country but also in the West. In the USA, New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts and Connecticut were mostly impacted on a case/per million basis. Of course the media has largely ignored the dismal death tolls in those States while piling on Florida and Arizona. Gee, I wonder why? Can it be those States didn't locked down and are Republican?

What is it with the media and their fetish for lockdowns and the misery it brings?

There are places hardly impacted (or least had manageable and acceptable levels) including New Brunswick, British Columbia, Maine,  South Dakota, Vermont and other regions. Obviously, the more densely populated places saw the most cases. Florida and California have a high number of cases but fare better than the Big Four mentioned above.

And within that comes the fact that an overwhelming number of deaths is restricted to the over 65 years old demographic in several countries including Canada and the United States.

Sweden as well. In fact, one can argue, is potentially also an outlier as the county never locked down like the majority of countries in the West. The trade-off benefits are favouring them. 

I got sidetracked a tad.

We know the cases spread across all age groups with the under 19 group least impacted. But the deaths are another matter and everyone is focused on. The main challenge is that older people tend to have more than one ailment at the same time. Covid-19 naturally threatens this group most and somewhat distorts the reality of the figures. That is, the concern that we're attributing the cause of death to people with co-morbidities to the virus. 87% of all cases are in the over 60 age demographic. 66% for 70 and older.

So one can understand why young people are a little less worried and want to move on with their lives. The stats back them up. As it stands, the most vulnerable are in power and they're putting measures in place designed to protect them at the expense of the youth (ie schools not reopening at full operation).

That is, rather than asking the demographic most vulnerable to adjust their lives accordingly, we're asking the healthy to do so in an effort to protect them. It's a faulty reasoning in my view and this is where we'll get into all sorts of trouble social engineering in the manner we're doing (ie masks).

In the USA, there's also to the added dimension of politics and Big Money. The former of course is the notion Democrat states are still forcing lock downs which at this point are not only illegal but incoherent to the point of malice. The theory is they want to keep the economies from reopening lest it helps Trump in November. The CDC itself is not without its possible potential political play either as media, pharma and the CDC all in different ways are in conflict of interests with different groups. Much if it tied to the lucrative vaccine and treatments.

With those basic facts, it should provide context and offer perspective.

If anything to inoculate against the media plucking out outliers to satisfy its sensationalist appetite.

Unfortunately it works.

We have to base policy on outliers now. How would you like it if you died from it!?

People have accepted foregoing their civil liberties as their social habits potentially change in order to 'save' a demographic that can achieve the objective by taking matters into their own hands. For example, if you're in the danger zone, the onus is perhaps on you to proceed cautiously. Asking society to grind to a halt is not only unfair but threatens the real common good of all.

Besides, I'm almost certain most of the elderly have a 'go out and have fun. Don't stop your life for us' though process. I know my father was that way when he was ill urging us to keep going.

They're magnanimous that way.

That doesn't mean we shouldn't observe voluntarily some requested protocols but at the moment this is traversing into a realm of social engineering that's not necessary in my view.

Again, the idea we're fining and arresting people for not following the protocols creates friction and ill-will that has an unseen negative impact on the community. I'm particularly concerned with the message we face a pandemic with severe measures that could hurt our physical and mental well-being.

In that calculus is the lockdown of an economy. For the economy is not just about money. It's the culmination of intricate and nuanced behaviours and interactions of day to day human activity.

The economy is life.

Shut that down, you shut it.

All this to say it's irrational as irrational can be to live your life in fear of becoming an outlier.

It's what these masks symbolize.

Fear. Not courtesy.

If you live in fear then you're safest bet to eliminate risk to never leave your house.

And even then there's risk.










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