Random Pandemic Thought

"The prospect of domination of the nation's scholars by Federal employment, project allocation, and the power of money is ever present and is gravely to be regarded.

Yet in holding scientific discovery in respect, as we should, we must also be alert to the equal and opposite danger that public policy could itself become the captive of a scientific-technological elite."

President Eisenhower, January 17, 1961. 

"2020 is where Wokism, TDS and Covid-19 all merged into one ball of mass hysteria". Me, August 2020.

Something is definitely off. My biggest concern about the pandemic shit down back in March was it was going to morph into an open-ended episode and it looks like the incompetent people in charge are taking us on that path.

I've come to realize we actually know vey little about Covid-19 and that we're simply assuming in the absence of knowledge we must over react just in case. And the fact we don't know much about isn't necessarily a bad thing. It's our response to accepting we don't know is what's going to determine how we come out of this.

And right now we're failing. 

We've clearly moved on from the curve flattening to something far more opaque and open ended. Which we shouldn't accept. That is, officials are acting like they want this to go to zero cases without explicitly stating it. This is unrealistic as it is impractical as it is foolish.

One of the metrics used is total cases to determine if we're 'beating' the virus. Vanquishing Covid-19 is more about hubris than it is humility. Politicians are acting like they want to be the heroes who save their countries but in reality their setting themselves up for a Pyrrhic Victory at best. The damage to the economy and psyche of the people is already possibly at the point of where it will take years to rebuild. This is on public officials. Not the virus.

Testing for Covid-19 is not always accurate - as we test, cases go up but that doesn't really mean anything since we don't know for sure if its viral. There are no universal standards on how to determine if in fact people have Covid and who knows what's going on with how they record deaths. 

Further muddling the narrative is the fact Covid has the same symptoms as the flu and pneumonia. I'm starting to wonder if this thing has been around much longer than we think and isn't nearly as deadly than we think. In other words, if the CDC claims 50 million Americans have been infected (to the extent we can trust they even know what Covid is) it's not a stretch to think the wold count is higher by the same order of magnitude. In this case a factor of 10 which translates into 200 million people infected. Currently, the official death count is around 760 thousand. Let's assume 50% of those  are in the over 65 age group bracket. We're down to 380 000 for all other age groups.

And I'm leaving the CDC recent bombshell which I briefly address in the Derp links somewhere and linked to Dr. Ron Paul discussing it. Basically, of the 192 000 dead in the USA, if you go with the CDC's '6% strictly are Covid' that means 11 000 people have died directly because of Covid-19. But reporter Alex Berenson explains that it's closer to 50 000 because there are cases where it's legitimate to mark it as a cause of death even if there are underlying conditions. Still, 50 000 is far less than 192 000. 

So I'll move along without that because, well, wow.

I've read that anywhere between 80% and 90% of deaths had a co-morbidity (in addition, 80% of people don't need treatment at all while 20% develop some form of respiratory problem). In other words, the death count for people with no underlying health conditions is around 152 000 (80% x 760 000). But a more accurate figure is 80% x 360 000 (the portion of people under 65) or 72 000. And I'm using the lower end of the percentage. It could still be lower.

That's in the world. The world's population is pushing 8 billion.

In sum, 200 million infected. 72 000 dead who were below 65 and with no health issues. 

Or. .036%.

We're burning our economies down and wreaking untold havoc on the psychology of people for......036%.

Of course, this is based on my own extraction of the figures. I could be wrong but I don't think I'd be too far off from the reality if someone refines these assumptions based on available data.

Public officials keep upping the draconian measures in fear of another 'wave' in three months. But the virus never went away and has been swirling and dancing around for months now. We may see a 'surge' of sorts but I don't think it'll be on the level of what we went through in the spring. Spikes aren't a reason to panic.

The latest of course is the mask mandates. 'Wear a mask, save life' actually makes no sense when you see how low the death rates have gone and likely to remain. You're engaging in faux-virtue theatre more than your are actually saying a life. In fact, you're swallowing whole government propaganda is what I think.

Moreover, the notion of 'waves' is also rubbing me wrong now. The more I hear people saying 'watch out. You'll see. This fall is going to be a nightmare' the more I wonder if the opposite will happen.

When I was in investments 20 years ago, one of the most popular stocks to buy among novice investors was Air Canada. I remember walking into stores and over hearing people talking about Air Canada stock. That was a sign the stock was over bought. In other words, it was wise to not buy the stock. Sure enough, the stock did eventually drop and no one spoke of it again.

I think there's a lesson in there here. The more people talk about something as if it's a sealed fate, the less likely it will happen. It's possible we're just taking the concept of a 'wave' at face value. But what is a wave exactly and what's the point of reference? If we're averaging 90 cases per day (think about how small this is. Yet we act like we're seeing 900) in September and it shoots up to 200. Is that a wave? Or is it a spike? Will we be able to separate what is a spike from a wave from a trend? 

Lockdowns simply delayed things.

One of the problems I have with masks - aside from it being gris-gris - is how do they determine if they're working? As far as I can tell it's the perfect recipe for government to make it whatever they want to keep it open-ended. For example, the two primary reasons for masks are droplets and asymptomatic spread. The data on either is unclear but the government has basically told people to fear others and the problem I have with this is, aside from causing angst and friction, is how they can play off this for as long as they see fit.

Are people prepared to wear masks all year round for influenza and pneumonia? Theresa Tam went as far as to say as long as two years even if there's a vaccine. Mother Tam needs to dial it back a little.

We have a scientific-technological class that is completely incapable of considering the long-term social and mental health of people through these bits of psychological theatre.

This is a social catastrophe created by public health officials and politicians.

Both Boomer and Gen X leaders have played the part of arsonists to the economy world over.

Two stories point to maybe we should dial this back before it gets out of control lest we find ourselves in the same absurd and preposterous position like Australia and New Zealand.

Contrast this with Sweden which is pretty much done with the pandemic. When and if it marks its return, the Swedes are now in a position to tackle it as it comes without resorting to drastic measures like in NZ.

The other was Wisconsin suggesting people wear masks at home during a Zoom call. I won't dignify this. And while I waited to post this for a couple of weeks, in the interim Mother Tam advised people to wear masks during sex. Again, won't dignify this here. 

I don't know what it's going to take for these incompetent public officials to pivot.

I notice there's also this notion that the virus keeps coming back because people aren't wearing masks or social distancing. This is specious logic and unfounded. Again, Sweden is proving this mindset wrongheaded. A coronavirus never leaves. So what you're advocating for is an impractical and irrational mode of habit.

Know what's more effective and less dangerous than lockdowns and masks?

One is for us to shift away from the opiate of the suppression theory (it's foolish to think you can 'beat' a virus in this manner) and focusing on treatment.

The other is staying healthy and fit (where even here the government is stupidly preventing people from doing so). Eat well. Take in some Vitamin C and D. Engage in activities. Sleep.

Keep being social without being irresponsible.

Everything else is just the art of noise and the politics of fear.