2020-03-23

Wuhan Virus And Investments: Don't Panic

I looked at my modest investments and it wasn't pretty. And this was the closing at the end of February. It's going to be ugly this month as well.

I'm a panicked or worried?

Not really.

We've been through this before. Though the drop in this market as been the fastest in history and the market can still drop further. Trying to time this bottom is going to be tricky. We'll only start to see a change once the market feels the virus as plateaued.

A recessions is likely if not inevitable.

If we go by the percentage drop to the number of days for recovery ratio (notably the Arab-Israeli war/oil embargo and Global financial crisis in 2008), it seems to indicate Covid-19 will take longer than past market collapses but we won't know until it settles.

There's still an outside change a return to normalcy can arrive by mid to late April, at which point the market could respond positively and swiftly. But it's going to get still messier in the next couple of weeks. That's likely already priced in to the market; depending how antsy it's feeling.

Either way, sit tight. Don't do anything rash. It would be foolish to do so.


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