Humans Fear Risk And Probabilities

The concept of probabilities is not natural to humans to the point it's counter-intuitive. It's difficult to be cognizant of probabilities in a state of fear as we've seen this past year.

Because probability includes risk in varying degrees it becomes philosophical and even abstract in nature. 

Quantifying and keeping a secular disposition using probabilities helps to bring context and perspective.

Those of us familiar or steeped in mathematicians like Cardano, Bernouilli, Pascal or Mere, it has provided a level of comfort in facing life based on probabilities.

The interesting part is people calculate risk and probabilities all the time. They're just not necessarily aware of it.

I've allowed this to guide me throughout the Covid-19 health crisis.

Play the probabilities. This will help to moderate and calibrate the fear-meter. One thing is for sure, you're not going to get this from public officials and media. 

For example,  consider these facts:

1) 10% of cases actually become infected.

2) 20% of people are responsible for 80% of the spread.

3) Anywhere from 50% to 90% a PCR test results in a false positive. 

4) The vast majority of deaths are in one demographic (over 70) with at least one underlying condition in one setting.

5) The survival rate is high at around 99.85% globally but closer to 99.9x% for health people under 70.

6) .2% of the world's population (roughly 150 million into 8 billion) have contracted the virus.*

7) In Canada, the daily cases in April have been around 8000 or .02% of the population. 

*I read a study claiming (and I forget where I read it) that in fact it's likely 2 billion people may have been infected. There's some evidence suggesting it's been around since 2018.

The come facts not easily quantified:

1) Reinfectivity is rare.

2) Asymptomatic spread is rare.

3) Droplets are not the main or sole driver of transmission. Aerosols likely play the bigger role. (Sorry mask fans)

4) T and B-cells and natural immunity play a larger role in fighting off the virus.

5) Early treatments are available (but inexplicably not administered in North America especially in Canada).

6) Surface transmissibility is low. We've known this since spring of 2020. Yet public health officials insist on 'sanitizing' measures in stores. 

These are just some I've observed but I'm sure there's more. Where media may ignore or overlook these facts or fail to offer proper context, they'll make sure to play up 'outliers'. For example, the healthy 22 year-old who perished or is dealing with 'long-Covid' play well on the emotion but are not statically significant. Hardly a reason to stop life.

When considering all these facts, it helps to shape a different view and shift the mindset from one rooted in fear to one based on calm reason.

The odds of one getting infected are low and are still lower when mortality is considered. 

It may be hard to look at this situation dispassionately but it could very well save your life.