Quebec Elections: The Day After

While on the surface it may seem like just another boring post about a boring political election, the reality is that it is not.

Canada and Quebec have shifted right and the electoral map lends some interesting insights about what Quebecers are thinking.

It took the ADQ to finally show where Quebec really stood. For years it was a murky world of trying to interpret who voted for what on what values. For example, voting for the PQ did not necessarily mean you advocated the break-up of Canada (though this is the raison d'etre of the party) and voting Liberal did not mean were you not a Quebec nationalist. Indeed, the Liberals often legislated nationalist bills and laws. Then came in all the labels, allophones, anglophones, soft-sovereigntist (another way of saying I am undecided but will keep my options open), hard core independiste and so on. To many of my age group this was all nonsense. Cumbersome labels only serve to muddy the waters.

Interestingly but not the topic of discussion here, the nuances of Quebec politics is not that far off from what I have observed in Italian politics.

In addition to making clarifying the electoral landscape, the ADQ also gave Quebecers a real choice. It was center-left and left politics that ruled Quebec for decades. The center-left doctrine has fallen on hard times and ears. Now, in comes a party that tilts right.

With Harper and Dumont now elected you can't get clearer than this. Is it a fad? I don't think so. I will be watching Dumont; especially on his separatism rhetoric. Harper has my vote. Dumont is very close to getting his.

The tightness of the result (a mere few thousands votes separated the three) will obviously give spinsters some leeway but here's what we can infer about the results nonetheless.

Many have argued that the social-democratic (and I use the term democratic loosely here) PQ vote was a blue collar/romantic intellectual vote. That only the "clueless" voted PQ. Many Pequistes argued back that it was the older voters from the pre-Quiet Revolution era who supported Federalism. They believed they had all the progressive ideas. All they had were 19th century romantic notions.

Last night's vote did not necessarily mean Federalism won (though it's hard not to think this) but it did show - given the electoral map - that the PQ did indeed get its votes from the hinterland (rural communities) and the poorer regions of the city of Montreal (Montreal-East). I The ADQ split is what brought this forward. Now who migrates to the ADQ is another story altogether.

The ADQ and Liberals pretty much got everything else. That has to count for something. Now we know where the Province lies ideologically. This is significant because Quebecers were always good at keeping its political master guessing. Quebecers are republican individualists at heart and they will swing if they have to. Contrary to popular belief, conservatism always had a place in Quebec. This time they could not swing. They were forced to make a protest vote and in the process revealed a part of who they truly were.

So where does this leave the PQ? It's hard to see how they can overcome this. The BQ were handed their lunch at the Federal level and now the the PQ are dealt a hard blow. One can argue they should abandon their dream of nationhood. But that would be political suicide. I'd rather they stick around. That way we can keep an eye on roughly how many people believe in the project. As time moves forward, many moderate Pequistes may shift to the ADQ. Only the hard core pure laines will stick around. Call them the structural and committed supporters. Once this migration takes place (and I'm only assuming here) that will reflect more accurately how many people truly believe in breaking up Canada.

To me, 1995 was a loss leader. It never was that close. The Lucien Bouchard factor was able to sway the emotional vote. As Quebec modernizes, as the Internet grows with relevance, as the new generation begin to travel, the rational component will play a bigger role. In other words, the PQ will have to finally prepare hard documents explicitly explaining how they intend to achieve independence. A raod map or business plan if you will. This means with all possible scenarios (good and bad) being detailed and disclosed to the public. They will have to think like mature leaders and not troubadours.

All in all, this was a great result for Quebec. The Province needed a little right of center push.

Let's not get too excited here. There are major irritants that still conflict this country: inter-provincial barriers, self-serving Premiers, wars over transfer payments, string unions and so on. These are all counter-productive activities that impede Canada. These are issues that need to be ironed out.

Will Harper and Dumont truly usher in a new Canadian mentality?