2006-01-16

World Faces Uncomfortable Choices with Iran

Iran is back in the news these days. It seems they were not comfortable with all the attention Iraq was getting. So they unveiled their plans to be a nuclear power in the region.

The descendants of Persia are run by religious derelicts who want to be a nuclear power. Iran with nuclear capabilities is filled with disturbing geopolitical implications. It can destabilize and bully its neighbours (especially when it comes to oil production) as well as threaten to implicate regional powers like China and India. It can - above all - threaten Israel.

However, the problem with how to deal with Iran is a tricky one. Amidst the Islamic tyranny, lays a vibrant democratic movement among its youth. World powers should do more to support them. Furthermore, The U.S. does not have official relations with Iran which neutralizes American involvement. For the time being, the U.S. will rely in their European allies to open talks with Iran. As is usually the case with diplomacy, navigating through the balancing of Iran's needs and the world's requests will prove a test for our ability to negotiate.

This is yet another opportunity for the world redeem itself. When faced with uncomfortable choices in the past the world dithered. They (mostly Europe) failed with Nazi Germany as they kept their heads in the sand. They (once again parts of Europe and Russia) failed when they chose to publicly scorn the U.S. when it came to Iraq. The Iraq story had a twist in that it revived a long-standing debate within the inner circles of American power as to whether the U.S. should export - in what manifestation remains a source of intellectual debate - its visions of democracy. Reaching for a Utopian ideal is filled with the unpleasant reality of war.

What course of action will the world choose with Iran? Dialogue? Countries like Canada will push for this. In any event, for Canada Iran is not a major issue during election time as Canada busies itself with parochial domestic issues. It is telling that during the election campaign the mention of foreign policy vis-a-vis Iran has not been raised.

For the major players, a major obstacle to be overcome is how does one speak to an opponent that has little respect for dialogue? As witnessed so often, is not the language always best understood in this region. Unfortunately, force is an ancient language they usually understand. For its part, what will the UN - so agile and skilled in the art of dithering - decide?

Odds are that Iran may have to be dealt with militarily - the question is what type of operation (precision bombing, covert etc.) will be employed and who takes part. This also poses all sorts of serious questions with major implications. The Americans have their hands full in Iraq. They have to use every ounce of enlightening thought to ensure Iraq succeeds. Their military is large enough to take on another project but why would they want to stretch themselves thin? Not to say nothing of the planning that goes into this; Persians are not Arabs.

Indeed, some military strategists claim they are already dangerously there. If the U.S. invades Iran - which may be an unlikely scenario - that simply leaves them vulnerable. Maybe even vis-a-vis North Korea. If military action is opted for - after diplomacy is tried - the forces of anti-war may have to close their eyes because there may be no other choice.

Waging war is an awful decision to make. The ones who take decisive action usually are criticized (though it can be reasonably suspected behind the scenes there's a sigh of relief even among the criticizers). Recall France when they helped Hussein with his weapons program in the early 80s, Israel answered by bombing the facilities. In doing so, Israel was made out to be the rogue state. This sort of stuff should cease among the civilized nations of the world.

The world should avoid this sort of factionalism. Iran is too important an issue (especially considering that Asia already has its and full with North Korea). Iran sees what is happening in Iraq as it slowly emerges from the wilderness by embracing democracy and they don't like it one bit.

What are the options? The usual ones; appeasement, meaningful discussions (with threat of sanctions) or force. The willingness to use force is what makes Americans and Israelis unpopular. That leaves the European powers who may or may not have something enlightened up their sleeves.

If not, it is possibly time to unleash Israel since they are the ones under direct and immediate attack - not to mention Europe as they are within striking distance of Iran. There is no doubt that the U.S should lead. It would indeed be a great accomplishment if Europe can subdue Iranian ambitions but what are the chances of this? If they fail, they must step aside and let the Americans help.

In the heart of what was once the cradle of civilization, humanity finds itself at a crossroads. What will it be world? Do we break ranks or do we speak as a unified voice to send a clear message once and for all?

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