Quebec And Lucy In The Sky With Diamonds

If Canada has become disconnected from reality, Quebec is forming its own reality.

Quebec has grand plans.

Let's examine it.

Two things about Quebec. It sure loves climate change and it plans to give independence another whirl.

This time we're not going to get a "We love you. Please stay!' from Canada. More like, 'don't let the door hit you on the way out'.

If anything Trump showed us it's that Canada has hit a cul-de-sac.

He did us a favor. Not that we didn't already know we had major problems. It's just that we didn't feel the need to address them. Things were too good.

And just like that our good thing is now threatened.

But it was rooted in anything we earned.

This is the point about Trump. He sees we're a national security threat. And rather than accept this and work to fix it, we decided to try and capitalize on him for political expediency.

Smart move.

He's now saying what exactly do you offer? Besides being hewers of wood and drawers of water? 

As a result, the colonists hastily put together like Keystone Cops  a 'Team Canada' council to deal with Trump. It's going as you'd expect.

Nowhere.

I expect the flag waving to subside and the patriots have to be finding it harder and harder to just 'Buy Canada' by now.

I know my last few posts are incorrigibly and caustically cynical but just calling it as I see it.

Some call this being a traitor.

I call it being a true patriot. I address our issues and point out there's no real interest to fix them.

From a weak Charter to inter-provincial barriers to serious shortcomings in the Parliamentary system. I don't see the country overcoming these. It would take too much will and courage.

And besides. Many believe things are still fine. "Best country in the world", right?

Yes, things are relatively still good in Canada comparatively but the competition isn't too stiff. But people are sensing that America is about to hit a golden age and that's the difference whereas Canada is deadset on staying the course into irrelevance. 

They want to be a part of it. 

I'm rambling.

Quebec.

Quebec is addicted to the green rift. Do they ask for green envelopes or will brown do? Asking for a friend. 

The battery plants exploded, excuse the pun. So what do they do? Sign wind power deals.

There's no end to it.

China, India, Russia Brazil and USA aren't following the theatrical Paris Accords but Canada will! And Quebec will be its best lap dog.

I think we've lost all out feet at this point at the amount times we shot them off.

And then there's independence. 

The new slick PQ leader Plamondon says we can do it.

At least he had the presence of mind to tackle the first hurdle. That's to make up for the loss of equalization payments when Quebec leaves.

Provinces aren't obligated to pay up once they leave and in the current state of geopolitical affairs are in no mood to play nice and negotiate with Quebec. Like Canada over rates its use to the U.S., Quebec does do with Canada. Already in a Confederation the provinces barely cooperate imagine when the Confederation splits! 

I can totes see Alberta offering a portion of the splits to Quebec.

Not.

At the moment, EPs represent about 2.7% of Quebec's GDP or about $5 billion. To offset this. Plamondon proposes to cut waste.His plan would save about $11 billion.

Not bad.

It's all hypothetical and the likelihood of it happening next to nil but at least he's aware that Quebec won't get free money.

Quebec isn't the worst offender placing 5th among the provinces per capital but still.

Its fiscal capacities is way behind Ontario, Alberta, Saskatchewan and B.C. Even Newfoundland doesn't get EPs.

If Quebec wants to go at it alone it's gonna have to go full rad. Like Ireland rad.

Savings - which Plamondon intends to reallocate into education and seniors facilities - is not gonna cut it. Not sure how a province with a strong socialist and collectivist ethos is going to keep spending under check.

The key is growth and productivity. This is where Quebec hits a snag. The business and cultural models in place are not conducive to an atmosphere where growth and productivity can thrive.

Let's take a gander at how Quebec figures when compared to fellow 60 jurisdictions in North America. 

According to Fraser, the procaine ranks 48th in productivity. 

It's 55th in GDP per capita. 

Quebec's total GDP is 13th.

So clearly we're not making the most of our potential.

As far as I know, there's no plan to address this.

Any plan to do so would encounter a major obstacle. Culture.

Quebec is to be lauded for its vigilance in protecting its culture. On this note, it's eons ahead of the "post-national state" that's become of Canada. 

But at what point does it become counterproductive?  It's the age old debate that's been consuming and confronting the province.

Here's the problem,

In order to grow and compete in a hyper-linked global economy, Quebec will need to attract the very best talent from all over the word and that means, gulp, having to make concessions on language.

No one is going to come here invest and set up shop with such onerous - and punitive - language laws. I won't get into the nitty-gritty of the laws themselves but suffice to say they're unique among Western nations.

And not in a good way.

Bill 96 was a completely unnecessary attack on English. There was no justification for it as the French language was stable in Quebec. But Legault, who seems to have a personal vendetta against the language as well as seeing it as a good way to offset his lagging popularity, decided to make lives difficult. Again, not going to get into what Bill 96 entails. Google it.

But laws like this one discourages and disincentivizes attracting talent.

People talk.

Social media.

Word gets around. Pst, don't set up in Quebec.

Growth rates in Canada are already somewhat low (around 1.6% for certain provinces) but it's downright anemic with Quebec at .2%.

Alberta is experiences positive net-migration inflows. It's the Texas and Florida of Canada. Quebec and Ontario are seeing drastic net outflows. People know where the butter's at.

Businesses look at this.

Yes, it can still attract larger corporations - largely thanks to various schemes including tax credits and tax forgiveness - but this is not what we should gun for.

It needs to attract entrepreneurs and highly skilled talent including the next generation of AI engineers. 

This is all conducted in English. If ti doesn't want to be a player content with crumbs, so be it.

But if it wants to be independent it's going to have to open itself up.

Few like to be told how to speak or where to send their kids to school. These are things that will matter when someone does their 'pros and cons' analysis. 

As it stands, Quebec isn't even it in the conversation. 

So how can a province with such a poor economic record possibly go off on its own?

It can't. Not without some major changes.

Simple as that.

Canada and Quebec with Lucy.