Open Public Musings

Differences between the United States and Canada:

Canada: Poor long-term demographics: Aging population; low births rates. Moving to not be energy independent.
USA: Healthy long-term demographics; energy independent.

****

There's a lot of doom and gloom about America. There are even some who look forward to its impending collapse. 'All empires collapse' is one popular assertion. Another, among the left, is the premise America is a colonialist nation built on genocide and slavery and so ergo it must fall in order for the meek and proletariat to inherit and make things 'right'. Something like that anyway. The big book of Howard Zinn spinning a cynical revisionist  'Sins of America' tale.

I've also heard people make the claim that one need just look at America's global power as a percentage of GDP to see it's power is diminishing. After WWII America represented 50% of world GDP. Today it's down to 27%-30% or thereabouts. Still a significant figure.

Meanwhile, America's newest rival - China - represents about 17% of world GDP. or roughly $14 trillion. In 1945, it was $30 billion.

That's a massive growth spurt. Since 1990, on average, it grew at about a 10% rate.

Now keep in mind, the growth came from total poverty in a relatively short period of time.

But here's the thing. Poverty rates in China remain extremely high. An even bigger problem is demographics. The one-child policy has had an irreversible negative impact on China while its human rights record remains abysmal and its environmental record practically a non-issue. Innovation isn't on the level of the United States, Japan or the EU.

America is the opposite.

It remains the centre of major innovation and and cutting edge R&D and there's no reason to believe this will lose its advantage. America doesn't have a human rights abuse problem and actually is committed to environmental policy contrary to popular belief.

However, there are two (aside from complete and utter military dominance) MAJOR factors America has an indisputable advantage on the world. One, are demographics. America has a healthy distribution of youth, immigration and aging populations.

These trends remain in tact. Most nations in the West (including Canada - more on us later) have an aging population and low birth rates. Which explains why, in part, they seem to be very open to mass migration. We're not having kids and we need more people to pay for things.

The other factor and a more recent development, America is now pretty much energy independent now. They're now net exporters of clean oil and natural gas - shale  in particular. This reality has a direct impact on Canada (again, will get into this in a sec).

My friends. I submit the impending demise of America will have to wait. China will eventually have to face their negatives just like America does and has done in the past. This will put an end to their challenge.

If anything, we're about to enter a second golden age of American prosperity. New Rome and Renaissance Italy revived....in America.

And this is great news for the rest of the world and Canada in particular. We can take this and make it work in our favor, or we can be fools and fight it for short-sighted political (mis)calculations.

Our choice. They've already made theirs.

****

What of Canada?

We have a couple of things going against us and are also the opposite of America.

One are demographics and the other our steadfast refusal to properly and without reservation develop our energy sector. If anything, we're astonishingly looking to subvert it.

The shame about Canada it has some competitive advantages (of which being a neighbour to American is one) but we're probably one of the most inefficient managers of human capital in the West. 

We have an aging population but among the lowest birth rates in the world. So much so, immigration can't make up the difference. As if this is bad enough, the one major thing we have to retain prosperity and stability is our natural resources. 

The sector provides reliable cash flow to help pay for our two unfunded liabilities: pension and health care. 

Health care is especially going to be a major challenge as Canada's population continues to age. Because of the nature of how we pay for the system (pay as you go), it goes toward paying towards those who are the heaviest burden. This is why you may start to see some really uncomfortably cost-cutting measures in the future - both financially and medically (rationing of some sort). It's inevitable.

One industry that can help to ensure some fiscal feasibility to the UL's is the energy sector. But this has become a target of Canada's 'climate change' initiatives.  

That is, oil is bad.

As a result, Canada is foolishly not building pipelines to get our oil to market and be a major player to ensure our sovereignty is secure and our social net in tact.  

We act as if we have a choice but we really don't. The United States already made he decision for us by becoming energy independent. What are we going to do? Import our oil from Saudi Arabia and the USA? How is this forward thinking and intelligent policy?

Our economy, while advanced, is tiny and not as diversified as the United States. We can't afford to get political with energy because there is no other sector to pick the slack. Banking is the next best thing here and this isn't a growth or innovative industry. 

At the moment, we don't have good leadership steering the country at this critical juncture. If we don't build these pipelines within the next couple of years, we may pay a permanent price in the form of less prosperity. 

Or worse.

This part reminds me of an essay I read (or I may have heard it on the radio. I forget) where an American military scholar was asked what Canada should do about its military. He soberly replied nothing can be done. We sat so long on not maintaining our military or forcing on just peacekeeping (essentially we became a UN force), we fell too far behind the United States even on just basic technological advances in communications. Even if Canada increased the budget it wouldn't make much sense. He basically concluded 'let us doing the heavy lifting (ie protect you) and Canada can perhaps focus on special forces training - something we remain very good at.

Canadians need to become more realistic and understand their place in this new world order being reconfigured by the United States. It's unfolding before our eyes and we shouldn't tolerate a government that's hostile to the USA. Now is not the time to play pretend nationalism.

I recognize this is just a skeleton of thought but it's how I'm seeing things.