2020-09-21

Some Raw SARS Cov-2 Versus Influenza Data

Quick, raw statistical data comparing influenza and pneumonia with SARS-Cov-2.

In 2018, Health Canada reported 8511 deaths attributed to influenza/pneumonia translating into 23 deaths per 100 000 population.

To date in 2020, Canada has recorded 9210 deaths related to SARS Cov-2. Or 24 deaths per 100 000 population.

Here's the breakdown by age group for deaths caused by influenza/pneumonia:

U-1: 15

1-4: 14

5-9: 4

10-14: 4

15-19: 6 

20-24: 6

25-29: 8

30-34: 18

35-39: 22

40-44: 39

45-49: 51

50-54: 127

55-59: 166

60-64: 281

65-69: 316

70-74: 538

75-79: 702

80-84: 1147

85-89: 1821

90+: 3226

The case/death graph for SARS Cov-2 are going into two different directions much like we would see during flu season.

We also know influenza is deadlier to children than SARS Cov-2 with 43 deaths from U-1 to the 15-19 demographic. There are no known cases of deaths for children under nine years-old for Covid-19.

It's also dangerous to people in all age groups whereas SARS-Cov 2 is particularly focused on an older demographic afflicted with co-morbidities. 90% of all deaths are in the 60 and over demographic with a vast majority of those usually afflicted with a co-mobordity (underlying medical issue or condition). 

SARS Cov-2 poses a significant risk to the older portion of the population much like influenza, however the latter tends to strike all age groups. It's important to keep  this mind to avoid allowing for outliers to dictate or distort perception. For example, an individual dying from Covid-19 who was 30 and other wise healthy is not the typical profile of someone dying from this virus.

This is why it's important to contextualize the numbers whenever the government says cases are going up. 

Cases going up doesn't mean it's a bad thing. We're testing more with 6.6 million tests conducted at last count with a 2.1% positive rate. And even at 2.1% we don't know really how accurate they are.

Meanwhile hospitalizations (for now) are down and deaths likely to remain low if European trends are a reliable indicator. We're much more better prepared. Focus should be on early detection and treatment. Cases go up, but the average age as dropped as well. Young and healthy individuals have a high survivability rate above 99%.

If we'd apply the same way we're treating Covid-19, we'd likely never leave our homes - vaccine or not.

In the United States, for the 2018-2019 flu season, there were 35.5 million cases with a further breakdown by age here. Is there an Influenza case count? 

While outbreaks can occur in restaurant settings, it is not the main driver. Long-term facility centres and hospitals are the main settings with most cases.  Which brings up the question of trade-offs. If the majority of cases are from those two settings while other settings like restaurant and bars are low, what's the cost of focusing on small outbreaks associated with them by limiting or shutting them down? Particularly, with unemployment and other economic consequences. 

This encapsulate well why Canadians need to begin considering the trade-offs for the continued suppression policies of provincial governments. Is one death more per 100 000 justify lockdowns and living in fear? 

Finally, in Canada, here's how death by illness (2018) shapes up:

Cancer: 83 400

Malignant neoplasms: 79 536

Disease of heart: 53 134

Cerebrovascular diseases: 13 480

Accidents (unintentional injuries): 13 290

Chronic lower respiratory diseases: 12 998

SARS Cov-2: 9200

Influenze and pneumonia: 8511

Diabetes: 6794

Alzheimer's: 6429

Intentional self-harm (suicide): 3811

Still support restrictions? Do the measures seem disproportionate to the threat?

It's ok Horacio. You can knock off the tough talk about Christmas. No one wants to see a Grinch steal Christmas. The science and facts are simply not on your side. You can cry and squawk about cases but doctors are increasingly speaking out. Dr. Weiss at the Jewish said exactly what the head Italian doctor said: No lockdowns because it was be devastating and the hospitals can handle this phase.

"Dr. Lawrence Rosenberg, former executive director of the Jewish General hospital and president and CEO of the Integrated Health and Social Services Network of the West-Central Montreal (CIUSSS) has just said that Covid-19 is similar to the flu virus in both danger and risk of transmission. He also mentioned that, while Covid-19 is particularly dangerous to the elderly with pre-existing conditions, the flu targets the very young as well as the very old. The Jewish General is the province's primary Covid-19 treatment center."

End of discussion. End of fear.

In Belgium, a country hit hard, over 1700 medical experts and almost 9000 people have signed an open letter asking the government to stop with the lies.

Governments should be encouraging Canadians to learn to live and cope with the virus. The idea we're living to avoid getting sick until a vaccine comes is impractical, unnecessary and threatens our collective overall quality of life on what it means to enjoy our existence.

This is what leadership is. To be courageous. Not succumb to fear. Public officials have failed us. 

If we don't get a handle on this hysteria soon, I'm really concerned what the fallout could be.

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